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Do Politicians Never Sleep?
As with most news junkies, I get notifications on my smart phone of breaking news alerts. Shortly after 10 am this morning, I got an alert that Paul Manafort had tendered his resignation to the Trump campaign which was accepted. Although this move was not necessarily a surprise after his “demotion” on Wednesday, I found one thing very curious. If you are following the Trump campaign, you know that this past Wednesday Donald Trump appointed republican pollster and strategist Kellyanne Conway to the position of campaign manager and Stephen Bannon the former chief at Breitbart news service as the CEO of his campaign. The line at the time was that Paul Manafort was not being demoted or pushed aside, the campaign was just adding more talent at the top. Manafort would retain the title of campaign chairman.
As I sad before, Manafort’s resignation was not a total surprise but I have the suspicion that the “fix” was in long before it was reported. Why do I make that assumption? Look at the image below. This google search was done at 10:25 this morning. As you can see, Politico, Bloomberg News and the AP wire were just picking up the story which broke shortly before 10 this morning. If you continue looking down the list, Breitbart News reported the story at about 3 o’clock this morning. I wonder how they knew 7 hours before anyone else? Good reporting? I doubt it. As I said, the “fix” was in.
Money and Politics
Fifty years ago, California politician Jesse Unruh said that money was the mother’s milk of politics. Never has that been more true. It is estimated that in this day and age, a Presidential campaign costs upwards of $1 billion dollars. A staggering amount of money for sure. Politicians must appeal to the rank and file of their particular parties for smaller donations and they must rely on uber wealthy campaign donors to reach their financial goals. Recent court rulings have only opened the doors to more money in politics so why should it concern the voters? It is important in the society in which we live and especially in our political process to have a certain transparency as to how and where a candidate gets his or her money. Are wealthy donors expecting a quid pro quo situation? Are lobbyists and special interest groups trying to exert influence on the candidate? Are foreign governments trying to influence an American election? These are questions the American people should be asking.
The recent allegations of Trump’s campaign manager Paul Manafort’s financial windfall from his time in the Ukraine are not particularly troubling to me. He was a private citizen at the time and worked as a political consultant and was apparently paid for his services. Nice work if you can get it but not illegal. What is of concern is the fact that he helped rehabilitate a pro-Russian politician and got him elected in a region trying desperately to hold on to democratic ideals. I think it does merit a small amount of concern that a man who is one of Donald Trump’s closest advisers has had such close ties to pro-Russian entities. That, however is an issue for the American people do decide.
What is more troubling to me is the fact that Donald Trump has not released his tax returns and at this point probably won’t before the election. Now a lot of people are saying that we won’t learn much from Trump’s tax returns anyway but apart from the tax rate he pays and the amount of his charitable contributions, other facts that could possibly come out in the tax returns might be the “bombshell” Mitt Romney referred to back in June. It might tell us, for example, who Trump owes money to, which banks and financial 
institutions might have influence over him and it might reveal that Donald Trump is not as wealthy as he has claimed. We know from the recent past that everything Mr. Trump says is subject to change and he has no loyalty, except to himself. He has said that his tax return is under audit and therefore he won’t release it but what about prior year returns? Surely they are not all under audit. I would have more respect for him if he just said no, he does not think it is any of our business to know his financial matters and leave it at that. But this constant will he or won’t he is getting old. Release the tax returns or tell the press to go to hell. Then let the American people decide if that is how we want our leaders to behave.
An Appreciation of the King
Elvis Aaron Presley. Affectionately known as “the King” to music fans world wide. Presley first burst onto the scene in the summer of 1953 when he cut a record at the legendary Sun Studios in Memphis Tennessee. Prior to Elvis, there were two very different music industries in the United States. The “white” music industry consisting of mostly crooners and singers who had migrated from the jazz world into popular music and the “black” music industry consisting of blues and rhythm and blues acts mostly dotting the Mississippi river from New Orleans to Memphis to St. Louis up to Chicago. Presley’s initial appeal was the fact that he was able to harness the emotional power of the more expressive R&B and blues musicians and make it palatable to a white audience. When he first appeared, radio listeners did not know if he was white or black. His first album released on RCA records in 1956 attests to his melding of styles covering songs by country and western artists Carl Perkins, Don Robertson and Leon Payne on one hand and Ray Charles, Little Richard and Charlie Singleton from the R&B world on the other.
Because there was not a cultural reference for someone like Elvis, the music establishment really did not know what to do with him. He was invited to play The Grand Ole Oprey in Nashville in the fall of ’54 but really wasn’t a match for the country audience. Presley gained attention by appearing on Louisiana Hayride a few weeks after the Oprey performance and from that gig appeared every Saturday night on their radio broadcast for a year. The Hayride was broadcast to almost 200 stations in 28 states and suddenly, Elvis was a star. The story might have ended there if not for an ambitious promoter named Col. Tom Parker who took over Elvis’ career and exploited his young star in every way imaginable. Back in the mid 1950’s there wasn’t a blueprint for how to create a star so Col. Parker made it up as he went. Record deals, television appearances, movie contracts together with a relentless tour schedule and promotion of every imaginable product kept Elvis busy and exhausted for the next twenty years. No one had ever seen a performer with such wide appeal and his influence was so wide spread by 1957 that the FBI actually regarded him as a threat to the security of the US.
As this is not a biography of Elvis, I won’t delve into the man himself, just the music he represented. Rockabilly, Country and Western, Blues, Rhythm and Blues, Gospel: Elvis could do it all and remained wildly popular throughout. He defined the modern music industry and paved the way for countless others. In almost every way imaginable, Elvis epitomized rock and roll; money, fame, women, drugs, and the excess, generations to follow associate with the rock and roll life. Elvis was the pioneer and his influence has been felt since that fateful day in 1953 when he walked into Sun Studios in Memphis paid $3.98 and cut a record ostensibly as a gift for his mother. On this, the 39th anniversary of Elvis’ death, every music fan the world over should take a minute to remember the truck driver who created and defined an industry.
Sit Down And Shut Up!
Donald Trump needs to sit down and shut up. And perhaps he needs to go back and take an English class in college. Granted, in the written word, sarcasm is sometimes difficult to detect. Unless you know a person’s bias or their history, or they keep up the sarcasm long enough, it can be tricky. Often times, sarcasm is about tone. Trump’s latest gaffe however, was not of the written word, it was done in a speech, various speeches and interviews where tone is evident and I did not hear a sarcastic tone when he called President Obama and Ms. Clinton the founders of ISIS.
Now this morning, he is telling everyone it was sarcastic. Mr. Trump, here are some examples:
In the 1980’s, Donald Trump raped and murdered over ten women in New York City. Believe me folks, I have the proof. He raped and murdered multiple women in and around the New York area. Believe me.
Donald Trump, if elected President, will be the best thing to happen to race relations and women’s rights in the history of this country.
Can you spot the sarcasm? Of course you can. The first statement is not sarcastic at all, it is just mean baseless rhetoric; but by Donald Trump’s definition of sarcasm, that’s all it is. And could someone please tell me why that when ever Mr. Trump is caught in another gaffe, he has to walk it back by insulting someone? It is a pathology of narcissism when you have to tear someone down to admit your own mistakes. WAKE UP AMERICA and see that the emperor has no clothes!
Character Counts
If you are a full-throated supporter of Donald Trump for President, I have little to say to you. If you tacitly support Trump because you don’t like Hillary Clinton, I will tell you to grin and bear it. I have little doubt that Hillary Clinton will be the next President of the United States. Deal with it. Many of the people I talk to who really just don’t like Hillary Clinton continue to call her out for being a liar. It is a common refrain. However, they can point to nothing substantive with which to indict her.
If you have been in the public eye as long as Ms. Clinton has been and have had your statements parsed as often as she has, any politician will more than likely be called a liar. Let’s not forget that Ms. Clinton was the first lady for eight years and was villified by the right wing for every single day. I have looked at the “lies” to which her critics point and I must conclude the following: has Ms. Clinton embellished her personal narrative in order to make a political point? Yes. Has she stretched the truth in order to bolster her political rhetoric? Guilty. Has she made questionable statements about complex issues that are very difficult to disprove? Possibly. But when it comes to policy matters, I have no doubt that Ms. Clinton is guided by a strict moral compass and has the courage of her convictions. I can find nothing regarding policy matters that would be termed a lie. I cannot point to a single issue where she changed her position for political expediency. Has she evolved on some issues? I suppose so, as a good politician should.
Bill said in his speech at the Democratic 
Convention that Hillary does not necessarily lead on issues and she may take longer to understand and evaluate the nuances of a particular subject but when she takes a position, she will fight hard to defend and advance it. To me, that speaks to a person who is thoughtful, reasoned and doggedly determined to do the right thing.
Earlier this summer, immediately following the Brexit vote in the UK, Donald Trump made a statement that David Cameron had misread the mood of the electorate and if he had just fallen in line with the popular consensus, he could have held on to his job. Is that the kind of leadership we seek in this country? Someone who reads the tea leaves and will say and do anything in order to hold on to power? I hope not. I am convinced that a true leader does not fear defeat as long as their moral compass is in tact and that they are defeated on principal and not personality. So to those of you who are voting, not for Donald Trump but against Hillary Clinton, I would ask you to think hard about what kind of leadership you want in this country. You may not agree with her on policy issues but when it comes to character, you could do much, much worse.
Following The Money
We’ve all heard the adage “follow the money”. It usually is the best way to determine what in actuality is going on. No where is that more true than in politics. At the end of May, the Republicans were about to light their hair on fire when it was revealed that the Trump campaign only had about $1.3 million in the campaign war chest as opposed to Ms. Clinton’s $42 million. In June and July, Trump closed the gap and started to raise funds but Clinton was still outpacing him. According to the campaigns, Trump has raised $131 million since June 1 and Clinton has raised $159 million. So the question becomes, what is happening to the money? 
We know that on the June expenditure report, $6 million of Trump’s war chest went back to Trump owned companies. $423,000 to Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s private club in Florida presumably for rental for campaign events, $520,000 for rent and utilities at Trump Tower in New York for campaign offices, $26,000 to rent Trump National in Miami for a campaign event in January, $11,000 for rental of a ballroom at Trump’s hotel in Chicago, and $4.6 million to TAG Air, the holding company for Trump’s airplanes. In addition to that, $5,000 went to Eric Trump Wine Manufacturing, LLC to pay for wines used at campaign functions and the campaign also paid a company owned by a board member of Eric Trump’s charitable foundation $4.7 million for hats and t-shirts used in the campaign. Some of this spending may look bad for the candidate but not illegal under current campaign finance laws. It should be noted that the $50 million Trump infused into his campaign during the primaries was forgiven and counts as his contribution to the campaign. The only thing to glean by this so far is that Donald Trump is watching out for his own business interests and taking care of his friends. Should we expect more from his Presidency?
The question now is, where and how will the campaign war chest be spent. So far, it seems that the only use for the money has been to try an raise more campaign cash. There has been very little spending on television ads and reports are surfacing that campaign offices in swing states are not adequately equipped and staffed. There has been some movement in the digital ad space but still no ad buy of television spots while the Clinton campaign is aggressively advertising in swing states and Nationally most notable during the Olympic Games now in progress.
The Trump campaign does seem to be rewriting the rules as it pertains to Presidential campaigning but the “rules” exist because in large part, they seem to work. Money moves polls as much as polls move money is a favorite mantra inside the political world and the proof is playing out in front of our eyes. Since the Clinton campaign has been aggressively putting their message in front of the American people, their poll numbers are on the rise. I can’t yet decide if Trump is crazy like a fox or just crazy. I suppose we shall find out on November 8th.
The Buck Stops Where?
I have long said that the electorate of the United States longs for another President like Harry Truman. Truman never aspired to the White House and was not enamored with the thought of being President. Truman was a Midwestern guy and was plain spoken. He did not couch what he said, had the courage of his convictions and famously said that the buck stopped with him. He was always ready to defend his comments and to my knowledge never had to “walk back” his statements or apologize for what escaped his mouth. After all, Truman was a seasoned politician having spent over 30 years as a public servant.
When Donald Trump emerged as a Presidential candidate some 14 months ago, many were first struck with his seemingly plain spoken manner and his lack of a teleprompter at his stump speeches. I heard some supporters comparing Trump to Truman and as it turns out, the two could not be further apart. Maybe that is why Trump is so open to the idea of using nuclear weapons: to be more like Truman who as we know is the only President in history to authorize their use in war time.
Never have I seen a candidate who speaks so indiscriminately in public. Perhaps it is his lack of political experience but I suspect there is a deeper pathology at work. Trump constantly opens his mouth, says something he has not thought about and then he and his surrogates spend the next three days cleaning it up while the left goes wild and the leaders in his own party chastise him. The latest comment, in a long line of comments, was made at a rally yesterday when he suggested that “the second amendment people” could maybe take care of Hillary. Trump and his megaphones are now saying he meant that supporters of the second amendment should band together and vote for Trump so Hillary won’t have the ability to appoint judges to the supreme court to uphold any gun legislation she might propose. Here’s how most people heard it. Somebody should take Hillary out. I mean let’s face it when you talk about “the second amendment people” you are talking about right wing gun nuts who wouldn’t hesitate to act especially if their candidate is encouraging them..
Part of Donald Trump’s appeal is the fact that he thinks “political correctness” has gone too far in the US and perhaps he is right but leaders, true leaders say what they mean and mean what 
they say. They call Ronald Reagan “the great communicator” because he spoke in careful terms and thought about what he wanted to convey before he opened his mouth. For Trump, this latest debacle is just another in a long line of statements that have been “misunderstood” or he meant it as a joke or didn’t really mean what he said. Can we really entrust the running of this country to a man who is constantly explaining what he meant to say or apologizing for what he said? Nothing will ever get done.
Why “President Trump” Will Never Be
Political polling is an inexact science at best but professional pollsters seem to have a pretty good handle on it. Otherwise, they wouldn’t be so accurate so often. During the 2016 primary season, there were over 28 million votes cast in Republican primaries. Donald Trump managed to get just over 13 million of those votes. A record for a Republican candidate to be sure but realize that there were more votes cast against him in the primaries as for him. Historically, in non-incumbent Presidential elections, less than 50% of the voters turn out in the primary season. Based on the number of registered voters and primary turnout, I would venture to say that there will be somewhere around 135 million votes cast on November 8. If we assume that every Republican voter in the primaries votes for Donald Trump (which is a stretch in an of itself) and twice as many Republican voters go to the polls, that puts Donald Trump with a vote total of somewhere around 56 million votes or 41%.
Based on what I see and read, Donald Trump has done very little to increase his base from the primary season. In fact, he seems to be alienating more people than he is attracting. I think Trump was counting on a number of Bernie Sanders voters to join his campaign but sadly for him, Sanders voters are not that stupid. Obviously, as the campaign wears on, the poll numbers will fluctuate here and there but if anything, Trump’s numbers will more than likely sink as more and more people are exposed to his vitriolic hate speech.
The most recent polls have Trump somewhere between 35 and 42% and those numbers are not likely to change significantly. If anything, I suspect his poll numbers to settle somewhere around 38%. There is often talk of an “October surprise” in Presidential politics but unless Hillary Clinton is anointed by Satan himself on national TV, I don’t see any surprise that would be able to make Trump a viable, realistic candidate for the Presidency. The good news is that Trump will lose, perhaps by an historic margin. The bad news is that it seems as though at least a third of the electorate in this country is crazy enough or pissed off enough to actually consider electing a deluded, egomaniacal, reality TV personality and dubious businessman with absolutely no political experience to the highest, most powerful position in the world. It doesn’t bode well for the future.
What’s Wrong With The GOP?
Republicans always want to point to Ronald Reagan as the patron saint of the Republican party. They quote him endlessly and want to invoke his memory when ever they need to rally support in the party. My own opinion not withstanding, they point to Reagan as the model of a modern major political leader. I now hear those same Republicans bitching about their party’s nominee for President. To those Republicans I say you reap what you sow. The rise of Donald Trump is exactly what the GOP has fostered since their last great hero sat in the Oval Office. I don’t hear anyone extolling the virtues of “43”. Or “41” for that matter and if you discount them, Reagan is all you are left with. Unless, of course, you like Ike. I blame Reagan for the state the Republican party is in currently and if you follow my reasoning, you will understand why.
According to the US Department of the Treasury’s national debt figures, we see an ebb and flow to our national debt since the Washington administration. The first interesting thing I noted was when Andrew Jackson became President, the national debt was 67 billion dollars. When he left office our national debt was just over 37 thousand. (not a typo). But I digress. Lincoln exploded the debt but he had a civil war to fight. Wilson and FDR also exploded the debt but they had world wars and a depression to contend with. Truman and Eisenhower paid a fraction of the debt off but since World War II, the debt has been climbing steadily. Never more so than the 1980’s when Reaganomics ruled. When Reagan took office, the debt was 907 billion dollars and by the time he left office that figure was 2.6 trillion. Ronald Reagan increased the national debt by 186% during his administration during a time of relative peace in this country. So what did we get for our 1.69 trillion dollars of additional debt? I guess you could make a case for spending the Eastern Bloc into oblivion but then you might have to wonder if we might not have been better off for all those years with a true “balance of power” and ignore the problems and strife that has existed in the Balkans, the Ukraine, Chechnya and Crimea since the Soviet Union fell. Now, what else did Reagan use that money for? Oh yes, let’s not forget the massive 25% tax cut he gave to those in the upper income brackets. According to Reagan, the additional wealth he bestowed on the top few percent of earners was supposed to “trickle down” to the rest of us but in actuality, it started a 30 year long expansion of income inequality in this country. The rich got richer and the poor or average schmucks stayed poor and average.
Fast forward to today and the Republican elite who have believed for a generation that the path to happiness is lowering taxes and increasing defense spending all the while not paying attention to what is really going on in this country. Average Americans are sick and tired of watching the “ruling class” get richer, corporate greed running rampant while shipping US jobs overseas and not really caring about the “social issues” so important to a minority of the Republican establishment. Americans want to be safe in their own country and a chance to better themselves through hard work and loyalty. Unfortunately the loyalty flowed from the bottom up but not from the top down. Republicans have survived for many years by people voting against their interests so when you get a slick
reality TV star who is able to tap into their fears and insecurities and convince them only he can fix the problems, again, they will vote against their interests to try anything to “right the ship”. What they don’t realize is that a vote for Donald Trump is for Trump’s sake not theirs.
So the next time I hear a Republican bitching about Donald Trump while praising Reagan, I say you get what you deserve.
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